In the crazy world of economics, with all the drama last week, it was a pretty normal housing week. Housing data showed year-over-year growth, weekly pending home sales rose, inventory declined slightly and mortgage rates were very steady, considering the conflict with Iran. Let’s take a look at probably the calmest sector in the economy this last week.
Weekly pending sales
Pending home sales data provides a week-to-week perspective, though results can be affected by holidays and short-term fluctuations, such as the giant winter storm in January. We were showing year-over-year growth at the start of the year, and then the snowstorm slowed things down.
Now that all the snow data is gone, we have three straight weeks of year-over-year growth, which should be the case given that mortgage rates have been under 6.25% all year long.
Weekly pending sales last week over the last two years:
- 2026: 66,127
- 2025: 63,508
Mortgage purchase application data
Purchase application data is a forward-looking data line: the growth here leads sales roughly 30-90 days out, and last week we saw 10% year-over-year growth with 6.1% week-to-week growth.
For this data line, what I really value is at least 12-14 weeks of positive weekly growth. If you can get this in addition to year-over-year growth, we have something legit for sure. For 2026, every week has shown positive year-over-year growth. The last three weeks, combined, have averaged 10% year-over-year growth, which if this continues, should give us a couple hundred thousand more home sales this year versus last year.
As you can see in the chart below, we do have some seasonality in the weekly data.
Here’s 2026 so far:
- 3 positive week-over-week prints
- 4 negative week-to-week prints
- 1 flat week-to-week print
- 5 weeks of double-digit year-over-year growth
- 8 weeks of positive year-over-year growth
10-year yield and mortgage rates
In the 2026 HousingWire forecast, I anticipated the following ranges:
- Mortgage rates between 5.75% and 6.75%
- The 10-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.60%
So what just happened last week? Oil prices went parabolic, and mortgage rates were calm amid all the Iran drama and the weak jobs report on Friday. Last week, my markers for the 10-year yield were that bond traders would be taking the Iran conflict more seriously if the 10-year yield closed above 4.15% and saw follow-through selling in bonds. That didn’t happen because the jobs’ Friday report was a bust, and bond traders reacted to it.
But regarding oil prices, my marker was that if prices got over $82, all hell could break loose because if we go higher than that, there is no market sense of closure on the Iran situation, and things can get worse. Oil rose as high as $92 last week and could go even higher this week.
Last week saw a 41.6-cent-per-gallon increase in gas prices, according to GasBuddy data, which is among the top 10 biggest weekly increases in history. I peg this crisis to end 11-14 days from now, because if things get worse with oil prices, Republicans risk losing more seats in the midterms.
Remember, airline fuel and diesel, which transport food, can push the cost of living up higher in the short term. I will be surprised if this lasts more than 14 days if oil prices are elevated and keep rising. For now, the 10-year yield has mostly behaved only because the jobs data was negative.
Rates ended the week at 6.14%, according to Mortgage News Daily, and Polly’s mortgage rate lock data shows a weekend rate of 6.14%.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage spreads remain a positive story for housing in 2026, reducing mortgage-rate volatility, and are close to normal levels.
Historically, mortgage spreads have ranged from 1.60% to 1.80%. Last week’s spreads closed at 1.94%.
If spreads matched the 2023 peak levels, mortgage rates would be 1.17 percentage points higher, at 7.31%. With spreads returning to normal, mortgage pricing can remain lower for longer than in previous years.
Realistically, we only have 20-34 basis points of improvement left in the spreads. The longer that volatility is compressed, the better spreads can get later in the year, but the big improvement here has already run its course.
Weekly housing inventory data
Housing inventory data fell last week, which was a bit of a shock. Hopefully, we will see the traditional seasonal increase in inventory soon. Inventory is at much healthier levels now than a few years ago. However, if inventory doesn’t start to grow soon, we might have some negative year-over-year inventory data toward the end of March or early April.
We have gone from 33% year-over-year growth in inventory at the highest point in 2025, to 6.91% last week.
- Weekly inventory change: (Feb. 27-March 6): Inventory fell from 690,357 to 686,879
- Same week last year: (Feb. 28-March 7): Inventory rose from 639,357 t0 642,479
New listings data
New listings data also showed a solid week-to-week increase last week, while it’s still down year over year. We should get new listings above 80,000 per week during the seasonal peak months, which would be on the low end of the number of new listings we would get in a normal period.
I am hoping for the new listings data to range between 80,000 and 100,000 per week during the seasonal peak periods, as it did from 2013-2019. For context, during the housing bubble crash, new listings ranged from 250,000 to 400,000 per week for several years.
Here is last week’s new listings data for the past two years:
- 2026: 61,710
- 2025: 63,870
Price-cut percentage
Typically, about one-third of homes undergo price reductions before they sell, reflecting the dynamic nature of the housing market. As mortgage rates and inventory rise together, the percentage of price cuts increases.
However, rates are near multiyear lows, so we are now seeing negative year-over-year price-cut percentage data. This makes sense given that demand has picked up slightly and inventory growth has slowed. We are starting the seasonal shift higher in the price-cut data, so the year-over-year data will be key.
The price-cut percentage last week is now 1.25% lower than this time last year.
The price-cut percentage for last week:
- 2026: 32.73%
- 2025: 34%
The week ahead: Iran, inflation, existing home sales and housing starts
To make myself clearer than ever: no current economic data really matters as long as this Iranian conflict isn’t resolved. Oil prices can rise much higher. which means higher gas prices, jet fuel, and diesel prices, which can increase food prices. So, even though we have a lot of economic data that will be released this week, the Iran conflict is more important.
Note that this existing home sales report coming out this week is the last report that will include the snow impact. You can be sure that, like clockwork, every rookie fake housing expert in the U.S. who had no idea why existing home sales fell last month still won’t understand why they’re low this month. But you know better because you read this Housing Market Tracker and listen to the HousingWire Daily podcast! So, get your popcorn and watch the terrible takes this week on the data they don’t understand, while you’re ready to explain what’s really happening.
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