War-time economics have, of course, sent gas prices skyrocketing, but have also pushed ставки по ипотечным кредитам higher over the last five weeks, from a low of 5.99% to a high of 6.64%. Rates have fallen a bit recently, but higher rates have slowed some of the housing data down.
In the past, mortgage rates above 7% would have dampened the data, but we still haven’t broken above 6.64% in 2026. Let’s take a look at this weekend’s Трекер рынка жилья data to get a sense of where we are at, since we are on day 36 of this conflict with Iran.
Еженедельные ожидаемые продажи
Our weekly pending home sales data provides a week-to-week perspective, though results can be affected by holidays and short-term fluctuations. Until last week, we had a streak of six weeks in a row showing year-over-year growth, but even though week-to-week data grew last week, the streak of positive weekly year-over-year growth ended with a small decline. We had some year-over-year decline data earlier in the year, but most of that was due to the epic snowstorm.
Weekly pending sales usually take 30-60 days to hit the sales data. Typically, mortgage rates above 6.64% and breaking over 7% really impact the data. Under 6.25% has been the sweet spot over the past several years, excluding short-term variables.
Weekly pending sales last week over the last two years:
- 2026: 70, 676
- 2025: 72,191
Всего ожидаемых продаж
I don’t traditionally show our total pending sales data, as it’s more of a moving average and doesn’t capture the week-by-week volatility I like to track with our weekly pending sales. With that said, as you can see below, total pending sales data still shows clear growth compared to 2025, as most of our weekly data in 2026 has been positive year-over-year.
A big theme of my work this year is that housing data hasn’t been that exciting, as rate volatility was very low early in the year, but it is now starting to pick up due to the length of the Iran conflict.
Total pending sales last week over the last two years:
- 2026: 380,914
- 2025: 367,777
Данные заявки на покупку ипотеки
Purchase application data is a forward-looking indicator: growth here leads home sales by roughly 30-90 days. Last week, we saw year-over-year growth slow from 5% to 1% with a week-to-week decline of 3%. So, higher mortgage rates are impacting this data line a bit more clearly, but nothing too negative yet.
For this data line, what I really value is at least 12-14 weeks of positive week-to-week data. If we can get that positive week-to-week data to go with year-over-year growth, then we have something cooking. For 2026, every week has shown positive year-over-year growth, but that growth rate has slowed for the last two weeks.
Here’s 2026 so far:
- 5 positive week-over-week prints
- 6 negative week-to-week prints
- 1 плоская печать на неделю
- 7 weeks of double-digit year-over-year growth
- 12 weeks of positive year-over-year growth
Доходность по 10-летним облигациям и ставки по ипотечным кредитам
в Прогноз HousingWire на 2026 годЯ предполагал следующие диапазоны:
- Ставки по ипотеке в диапазоне от 5,75% до 6,75%
- Доходность 10-летних облигаций колеблется в пределах от 3,801 тыс. долл. США/3 тыс. долл. США до 4,601 тыс. долл. США/3 ...
When the Iran conflict started, I talked about how I would be shocked if it continued past March 21 because of the economic implications of war, including higher energy and input costs, especially in a mid-term year. The longer the conflict goes on, the more problematic it becomes not only for our economy but for the world. Remember, tankers are very big, slow-moving ships, so you can’t flip a switch for speed here.
Two Fridays ago, I wrote about how the 10-year yield was starting to diverge from the oil trade, meaning oil prices were heading higher, but the 10-year yield wasn’t following along. Last week was another example of that, as oil prices rose after Trump’s very hawkish address to the nation. However, the 10-year yield never rose above 4.48%, the year’s high so far, during trading hours. I believe the 10-year yield is trying to get ahead of the deal because it isn’t so tied to the supply of oil but more to Fed policy.
Mortgage rates ended the week at 6.45%, according to Ежедневные новости ипотеки, и Polly’s mortgage rate lock data shows a weekend rate of 6.51%.
Ипотечные спреды
Mortgage spreads remain a positive story for housing in 2026, as mortgage rates would have easily been over 7% in 2023, 2024 and close to 7% in 2025, with the worst levels of the spreads. However, the spreads, which were getting worse in February as yields fell, compressing volatility on the downside, are now heading even higher with this war. But even now, as you can see below, we are still at better levels than the past two years.
Historically, mortgage spreads have ranged from 1.60% to 1.80%. Last week, spreads closed at 2.11%.
However, I wanted to compare last week’s rates to the worst levels of the spreads over the past three years, with the 10-year yield at its current level.
- If we had the worst mortgage spread levels in 2023, mortgage rates would be 7.45% today, not 6.45%.
- If we had the worst levels of 2024, mortgage rates would be 7.07% today.
- If we had the worst levels of 2025, mortgage rates would be 6.88% today.
Инвентаризация жилья
The seasonal increase in инвентарь жилья is now in full swing. That said, the growth rate of inventory has really slowed from last year’s peak levels. However, we are far from the unhealthy levels seen in 2021, 2022, and 2023, which is a huge positive for housing.
We have gone from 33% year-over-year growth in inventory at the highest point in 2025, to 4.67% last week. In the past, inventory growth picked up amid higher rates, softening demand and rising year-over-year new listings.
- Weekly inventory change: (March 28- April 3): Inventory rose from 713,549 к 723,460
- Same week last year: (March 29 -April 4): Inventory rose from 675,557 к 691,173
Новые объявления
I have been disappointed with the new listing data this year. Новые объявления had a slow week and was negative year over year. We should get new listings above 80,000 per week during the seasonal peak months, which would be on the low end of the number we would see in a normal period.
I am hoping for the new listings data to range between 80,000 and 100,000 per week during the seasonal peak periods, as it did from 2013 to 2019. However, it’s looking less and less likely that this will occur. For context, during the housing bubble crash, new listings ranged from 250,000 to 400,000 per week for several years.
Вот данные о новых объявлениях за прошлую неделю за последние два года:
- 2026: 70,191
- 2025: 71,777
Процент снижения цены
Typically, about one-third of homes undergo price reductions before they sell, reflecting the dynamic nature of the housing market. As mortgage rates and inventory rise together, the percentage of price cuts increases.
In my 2026 home-price forecast, I had a negative 0.62% call for the year nationally. However, mortgage rates were lower than I thought they would be at the start of the year, and the FHFA’s announced purchase of mortgage-backed securities pushed mortgage spreads lower than I expected. I believed we would see that improvement later on in the year; spreads are higher than that level today due to the conflict.
So, before the conflict started, my forecast for 2026 turned out to be wrong. Now, if rates head higher and stay higher for longer, I do have a shot at my call being more correct. Still, the percentage of price cuts is below last year at this time.
Процент снижения цен за прошедшую неделю:
- 2026: 34.44%
- 2025: 35%
The week ahead: Iran, Iran, Iran, inflation and existing home sales
Of course, as always, the conflict with Iran will be the main theme until this conflict ends; we can’t break out of the short, medium and long-term implications of this conflict to the economy until that happens. We do have inflation data and existing home sales coming out this week, along with some other reports, but the Iran conflict is still front and center after we gave Iran another 48 hours to make a deal or else.
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