{"id":60018,"date":"2025-05-23T03:00:21","date_gmt":"2025-05-23T01:00:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/housesmarketplace.com\/trumps-gse-exit-pursuit-is-complicated-and-could-be-costly\/"},"modified":"2025-05-23T03:00:21","modified_gmt":"2025-05-23T01:00:21","slug":"trumps-gse-exit-pursuit-is-complicated-and-could-be-costly","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/housesmarketplace.trio-tv.com\/ru\/trumps-gse-exit-pursuit-is-complicated-and-could-be-costly\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0412\u044b\u0445\u043e\u0434 \u0422\u0440\u0430\u043c\u043f\u0430 \u0438\u0437 GSE \u2014 \u0441\u043b\u043e\u0436\u043d\u0430\u044f \u0437\u0430\u0434\u0430\u0447\u0430 (\u0438 \u043c\u043e\u0436\u0435\u0442 \u0431\u044b\u0442\u044c \u0434\u043e\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043e\u0441\u0442\u043e\u044f\u0449\u0435\u0439)"},"content":{"rendered":"
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President Donald Trump\u2019s bombshell Truth Social<\/strong> post<\/a> on Wednesday night sent the stock prices of Fannie Mae<\/a><\/strong> and Freddie Mac<\/a><\/strong> soaring. <\/p>\n

But removing the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs<\/a>) from conservatorship after 16-plus years would be a complicated endeavor. And if they\u2019re not removed carefully, costs for borrowers could spike.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s announcement that he\u2019s considering a public offering of the companies sent Fannie Mae\u2019s stock<\/a> up 50% and Freddie Mac\u2019s stock<\/a> up 42% on Wednesday \u2014 big boons for the hedge funds that have held shares for years and have been waiting for the federal government to untangle the 2008-era framework that has restricted profits.<\/p>\n

But analysts at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods<\/a><\/strong> (KBW) said Wednesday that \u201cserious hurdles to privatization exist.\u201d <\/p>\n

Key challenges include determining the fate of the Department of the Treasury<\/strong>\u2019s investment. Investors like Bill Ackman<\/a>, the billionaire founder of Pershing Square Capital Management<\/strong>, argue the government could forgive it, given that the GSEs have paid $310 billion in dividends after drawing $193 billion in support since being placed into conservatorship in 2008.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The KBW analysts also noted that capital standards<\/a> must be recalibrated to deliver double-digit returns on equity for Fannie and Freddie. ROEs are now at 8% to 9%. <\/p>\n

Current capital levels are at 4.25%, but analysts recommend between 2.5% and 3%, still well above pre-housing crisis levels. If not changed, guarantee fees<\/a> would need to increase by 20 to 25 basis points.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Government backstop\u00a0<\/h2>\n

Analysts also warned that the agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market continues to rely on the perceived government backstop<\/a> for the GSEs. A return to a pre-Great Financial Crisis (GFC) implicit guarantee is possible \u2014 but only if the Treasury clearly communicates it<\/a>, they said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201dPost-GFC, the nature of the relationship changed after the credit line [of $2.25 billion available] increased sharply, the Treasury invested capital into the companies and the backing by Treasury arguably became more explicit given the conservatorship status of the GSEs. We think a return to the pre-GFC implicit guarantee is possible, but only if Treasury messages this effectively,\u201d KBW analysts said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the Mortgage Bankers Association<\/a> <\/strong>(MBA) also advocated for a formal guarantee from the government.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cMBA stands ready to work with the Trump administration<\/a> on a thoughtful plan to end the conservatorships of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in a way that avoids any market disruption or increased costs for borrowers,\u201d MBA president and CEO Bob Broeksmit<\/a> said in a statement to HousingWire<\/strong>. <\/p>\n

\u201cWe also believe strongly that any release<\/a> must include an explicit federal backstop \u2014 paid for by the GSEs \u2014 of their mortgage-backed securities to protect taxpayers, consumers, and our housing finance system.\u201d<\/p>\n

Impacts on lenders, investors<\/h2>\n

Some bond traders said at the MBA Secondary and Capital Markets Conference<\/a> earlier this week that they believe an exit from conservatorship would result in a 50-basis-point increase in mortgages. <\/p>\n

For the average homebuyer purchasing a $414,000 house, such a hike would add roughly $40,000 in costs over the life of the loan \u2014 although it should be noted that most mortgages have a shelf life of seven to eight years.<\/p>\n

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent<\/a> said earlier this year that any release from conservatorship would hinge on ensuring it didn\u2019t increase mortgage rates<\/a>. He also said Trump\u2019s tax bill<\/a> is the bigger priority.<\/p>\n

Jefferies <\/strong>analysts echoed concerns that privatization without a government guarantee \u2014 implicit or explicit \u2014 would raise funding costs for the GSEs and likely drive mortgage rates higher. In such a scenario, the private entities would tighten underwriting<\/a> standards, increase costs such as guarantee fees and make borrowing more difficult for marginal applicants.<\/p>\n

\u201cUncertainty around GSE reform could lead to wider MBS spreads and volatility \u2014 past episodes have seen investors pull back. Disruption to the ~$290 billion-a-day TBA forward market for MBS would hinder lenders\u2019 ability to hedge rate locks,\u201d the Jefferies analysts said.<\/p>\n

They added that without government support, the GSEs may impose stricter capital, liquidity and performance requirements on approved lenders and servicers to guard against losses. <\/p>\n

\u201cSmaller non-bank players could struggle to meet those standards, leaving a few large players to dominate the market,\u201d they said.<\/p>\n

Given the complexity of taking Fannie and Freddie public, Jefferies analysts said privatization is unlikely before 2026 or 2027.<\/p>\n

Though a road map exists from the work that former Federal Housing Finance Agency<\/strong> director Mark Calabria<\/a> did with then-Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, much work still remains.<\/p>\n

Indeed, one political source in Washington, D.C., speculated that Trump\u2019s Wednesday social post was a way to either assuage House deficit hawks, or potentially that the GSEs\u2019 investors convinced him to get the ball rolling on reform.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

President Donald Trump\u2019s bombshell Truth Social post on Wednesday night sent the stock prices of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac soaring. But removing the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) from conservatorship after 16-plus years would be a complicated endeavor. And if they\u2019re not removed carefully, costs for borrowers could spike. Trump\u2019s announcement that he\u2019s considering a public […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-60018","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nTrump\u2019s GSE exit pursuit is complicated (and could be costly) - Houses Marketplace<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/housesmarketplace.trio-tv.com\/ru\/trumps-gse-exit-pursuit-is-complicated-and-could-be-costly\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ru_RU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trump\u2019s GSE exit pursuit is complicated (and could be costly) - Houses Marketplace\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"President Donald Trump\u2019s bombshell Truth Social post on Wednesday night sent the stock prices of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac soaring. But removing the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) from conservatorship after 16-plus years would be a complicated endeavor. And if they\u2019re not removed carefully, costs for borrowers could spike. 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