{"id":60278,"date":"2025-06-24T03:00:28","date_gmt":"2025-06-24T01:00:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/housesmarketplace.com\/the-mortgage-market-hopes-for-rate-cuts-amid-war-moves\/"},"modified":"2025-06-24T03:00:28","modified_gmt":"2025-06-24T01:00:28","slug":"the-mortgage-market-hopes-for-rate-cuts-amid-war-moves","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/housesmarketplace.trio-tv.com\/ru\/the-mortgage-market-hopes-for-rate-cuts-amid-war-moves\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0420\u044b\u043d\u043e\u043a \u0438\u043f\u043e\u0442\u0435\u0447\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043a\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0438\u0442\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u044f \u043d\u0430\u0434\u0435\u0435\u0442\u0441\u044f \u043d\u0430 \u0441\u043d\u0438\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0432\u043e\u043a \u043d\u0430 \u0444\u043e\u043d\u0435 \u0432\u043e\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0434\u0435\u0439\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0438\u0439"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Global tensions between the United States and Iran have led many in the mortgage industry to wonder whether the bombing of Iran nuclear sites<\/a> would move bond yields and lead to a drop in mortgage rates<\/a>. On Monday, just as economists were factoring in the possibility of war with Iran, at least one member of the Federal Reserve <\/strong>signaled the chance of a July rate cut<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Both events could have a domino effect on the mortgage market. Shawn Way, West Capital Lending<\/strong>\u2018s vice president, says he could see the two unrelated events having a crossover impact.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey both obviously impact the housing market, right? But I\u2019m not sure if they\u2019ll necessarily play off of each other. I mean, as far as the [potential] Fed rate cut, I don\u2019t think that has much to do with us bombing Iran. I mean, I could be wrong, but the two of them together could cause rates to drop even further, potentially,\u201d Way said.<\/p>\n

He continued, \u201cHistorically speaking, geopolitical issues like war typically cause two things in general. One is that they typically cause oil prices to go up\u2026but the other thing it does is it causes a lot of uncertainty in the market and pushes investors into safer assets, like U.S. Treasuries. And when investors start putting money into U.S. Treasuries, it causes the bond prices to go up, which therefore inversely impacts mortgage rates.\u201d<\/p>\n

Way explained that bond action typically causes mortgage rates to drop, but there have been past anomalies. \u201cIf you look back at when Russia invaded Ukraine a couple of years ago, that didn\u2019t happen. And if you look at this morning, bond prices are up a little bit, but not much. After a huge story like the U.S. bombing Iran, you would think the 10-year would have skyrocketed today, but it didn\u2019t.\u201d<\/p>\n

Way says that since the COVID-19<\/a> pandemic, it\u2019s been hard to predict how global events will impact rates and buyers\u2019 behavior. \u201cThe normal historical trackers that you would look at haven\u2019t been impacting [the markets] in the way you would think that would, so it\u2019s kind of there\u2019s a lot of uncertainty in the market, and it\u2019s making it very difficult to predict what\u2019s going to happen next.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Fed rate cut is the most important news<\/h2>\n

Melissa Cohn, regional vice president of William Raveis Mortgage<\/a><\/strong>, says that the markets have \u201cnot paid much attention\u201d to the bombings. \u201cOil prices are down, which is good, because that\u2019s deflationary. Bond yields are down, not due to what was going on in the Middle East, but more as [the] Fed has floated the idea of a potential July rate cut.\u201d<\/p>\n

Both Cohn and Way shared that the markets react to the \u201cmost important\u201d news of the day. \u201cToday,\u201d Cohn said, \u201cIt seems to be the Fed is a much bigger deal than what\u2019s going on in Iran\u2026mortgages and housing are all very sensitive to inflation. You\u2019re always afraid, if there is a war in the Middle East, with oil production, being able to deliver oil, and that oil prices could go up as a result of the inability to get oil. As a result, you would think that if oil prices were skyrocketing, then bond yields would probably be going up too, because higher oil prices are inflationary. A large part of our economy is petroleum-driven still.\u201d<\/p>\n

HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami agreed that the bigger story today was when Fed Vice Chair said she would support a July rate cut. \u201cSo, stocks were up in the morning, oil prices didn\u2019t spill over higher, the dollar had a small move. It\u2019s almost like nothing happened over the weekend \u2014 the market is very calm with bond yields and mortgage rates.\u201d<\/p>\n

He added that \u201ctraders don\u2019t believe in the spill-over impact. Oil prices also made a giant move already, hard for it to go higher unless supply is really hit.\u201d<\/p>\n

Lower rates on the way?<\/h2>\n

While some industry experts like Edge Home Finance<\/strong>\u2018s Carlos Scarpero say it\u2019s \u201ctoo early\u201d to predict lower mortgage rates, Cohn is still optimistic that rates will see a downshift. \u201cI think that borrowers are just sort of very focused on their purchases, and nothing that has happened in the world, if it has an impact on them already, it just seems like it\u2019s business as usual.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cSo far, the market has had a relatively muted reaction to the U.S. bombing of Iran,\u201d said Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com<\/strong>. \u201cIt seems investors are still in wait-and-see mode \u2014 waiting to see whether there is an escalation of tensions. If there were further escalation, it could potentially drive oil prices higher, which could undermine recently improving inflation trends and make it trickier for the Fed to sort out the impact of tariff-related price increases versus oil-price related increases.\u201d<\/p>\n

She continued, \u201cThis could make it more challenging for the Fed to calibrate policy at a time of transition in which it already faces goals that could be increasingly in tension.\u201d <\/p>\n

Focusing on rate movement<\/h2>\n

Way urges buyers to keep an eye on potential rate cuts as they consider homeownership, regardless of ongoing geopolitical headlines. \u201cRates dropping is going to help me and other mortgage professionals, because we\u2019re going to get a lot more mortgage applications, and see a lot more buyers in the market. Now\u2026the downside to rates dropping is that a lot more buyers [will] flood the market, which causes demand issues and supply issues. So typically, home values go up.\u201d<\/p>\n

He continued, \u201cSo for those that have been sitting down trying to buy a house for a long time, my advice then would be either buy now and then refinance when rates drop, because once you get the house, you can always fix the rate in the future.\u201d<\/p>\n

Geno Paluso, CEO of Sagent<\/strong>, says that he\u2019s gearing up for rate movement. \u201cSpeculation about July Fed cuts has increased as world events grab headlines, and if potential July Fed cuts lead to lower mortgage rates, the mortgage servicers who are most proactive with customer engagement will achieve the highest retention rates,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Global tensions between the United States and Iran have led many in the mortgage industry to wonder whether the bombing of Iran nuclear sites would move bond yields and lead to a drop in mortgage rates. 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