{"id":62830,"date":"2026-04-25T03:09:04","date_gmt":"2026-04-25T01:09:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/housesmarketplace.trio-tv.com\/first-time-homebuyers-shrinking-presence-what-it-means-for-real-estate-agents\/"},"modified":"2026-04-25T03:09:04","modified_gmt":"2026-04-25T01:09:04","slug":"first-time-homebuyers-shrinking-presence-what-it-means-for-real-estate-agents","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/housesmarketplace.trio-tv.com\/ru\/first-time-homebuyers-shrinking-presence-what-it-means-for-real-estate-agents\/","title":{"rendered":"First-time homebuyer\u2019s shrinking presence \u2014 what it means for real estate agents"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

The share of first-time homebuyers has fallen to 21% of all transactions \u2014 the lowest level since the National Association of Realtors (NAR)<\/strong> began tracking the data in 1981.<\/p>\n

For real estate agents<\/a>, the shift is not a temporary blip. It\u2019s a structural change reshaping how agents build their businesses, talk about value and prepare for a future in which the traditional pipeline of new homebuyers<\/a> has stalled.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen first-time buyers fall to just 21% of the market, it fundamentally shifts the agent business from one built on volume to one centered on expertise and long-term value,\u201d said Alex Vidal, president of ERA Real Estate<\/strong>. \u201cFor decades, first-time buyers made up closer to 40% of transactions, creating a reliable entry point for new client relationships, but we haven\u2019t seen that level since before the Great Recession.\u201d<\/p>\n

The decline carries a hidden consequence for the profession itself; fewer first-time buyers means fewer entry points for new agents, said Ruth Krishnan, head of the Compass<\/strong>-affiliated Krishnan Team<\/strong> in San Francisco<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf there are fewer first-time homebuyers, it will be harder for new agents to enter the real estate business,\u201d she said. \u201cMany new agents cut their teeth on first-time homebuyers. It\u2019s not unusual for someone to meet a buyer at an open house and start working with them.<\/p>\n

\u201cAlternatively, many first-time homebuyers often reach out on Zillow and begin working with [the] agent [who] shows up to show them the house, which is often a younger agent who is working the leads of a bigger team that is paying for those leads.\u201d<\/p>\n

In Austin, Texas, agents are seeing a similar dynamic play out.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt definitely changes things,\u201d said Lauren Kennemer, a Compass Realtor based in Austin, Texas. \u201cFor a long time, first-time buyers were how a lot of agents built their business and future pipeline. With fewer of them in the market, there\u2019s been a shift toward really leaning into repeat clients and referrals.<\/p>\n

\u201cSo, instead of focusing on volume, agents are focusing more on relationships \u2014 staying in touch, being a resource and thinking long-term.\u201d<\/p>\n

Not every market is feeling the shift equally. In Cottage Grove, Minn<\/a>., broker-owner Justin Fox of REMAX Professionals<\/strong> said the impact has been less pronounced.<\/p>\n

\u201cAside from [fewer] overall units sold, which isn\u2019t necessarily related to first-time buyers, we haven\u2019t seen a meaningful impact in our market,\u201d he said. \u201cHomes priced at or below our median sales price, that are priced appropriately, are still moving and freeing up those sellers to move up.<\/p>\n

\u201cAlthough townhouses and condo sales aren\u2019t as robust as single-family homes, I believe much of that is due to insurance rates and their impact on the monthly association fees.\u201d<\/p>\n

Why boomers staying put means fewer homes for everyone<\/h2>\n

Baby boomers<\/a> now dominate both the buying and selling sides of the market, accounting for 42% of purchases and 55% of sales, according to NAR.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, older millennials (roughly ages 36\u201345) \u2014 now the highest-earning buyer cohort at a median income of $132,700 \u2014 are purchasing larger homes and leveraging accumulated equity rather than entering the market for the first time, according to those surveyed by NAR.<\/p>\n

The aging of the baby boom generation has not produced the flood of inventory many analysts anticipated.<\/p>\n

\u201cBaby boomers own a disproportionate share of U.S. housing and, for now, they\u2019re largely staying put,\u201d said Ginger Wilcox, president of Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate<\/strong>. \u201cThe long-anticipated wave of listings has not materialized because many homeowners are remaining in their homes longer than expected, even as lifestyle and care needs evolve. That reality continues to constrain inventory.\u201d<\/p>\n

Fox offered additional perspective on what happens when boomers do sell.<\/p>\n

\u201cMany are not repurchasing replacement homes,\u201d he said. \u201cAccordingly, owners exiting the market [not repurchasing] may begin to lower demand if they are not replaced by first-time buyers or buyers re-entering home ownership after an ownership break [due to] credit issues, family changes or strategic financial breaks.\u201d<\/p>\n

In San Francisco, Krishnan said many boomers are choosing to stay despite having more space than they need.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019ve not personally seen a ton of the baby boomers selling,\u201d Krishnan said. \u201cMany sellers that I speak to in this demographic have low interest rates on their homes and love living in San Francisco. Even though interest rates <\/a>are not as high as they once were, when they\u2019re looking to downsize in San Francisco, they just don\u2019t really see the value of what they can get versus what they will give up, given the interest rates.<\/p>\n

\u201cSo, even though the house is more than they need, in many cases, they\u2019re just staying put. Many of these people see their mortgage as an asset, and I think, at least in San Francisco, until interest rates go down, many baby boomers will choose not to sell.\u201d<\/p>\n

Vidal said many boomers choosing to downsize often have significant equity and cash.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s allowing them to outcompete first-time buyers for a limited supply of smaller or more affordable homes,\u201d he said. \u201cThe result is a market where inventory remains constrained, competition stays elevated and affordability challenges persist \u2014 particularly at the lower end of the price spectrum \u2014 unless new supply meaningfully increases.\u201d<\/p>\n

How agents must change conversations about value<\/h2>\n

With repeat purchasers now representing nearly 80% of buyers, agents cannot rely on the emotional pitch of the \u201cAmerican Dream\u201d alone.<\/p>\n

Today\u2019s buyers arrive with very specific expectations, Wilcox said.<\/p>\n

\u201cFirst-time buyers are entering the market later in life and with a clearer sense of what they want than previous generations,\u201d she said. \u201cThey have been watching the market longer, they know their priorities and they think carefully about how a home will function across the full arc of their lives, not just right now.<\/p>\n

\u201cBuyers are prioritizing livability over square footage. A smaller home with a flexible, well-designed layout appeals more than a larger one that doesn\u2019t adapt to how people live.\u201d<\/p>\n

Fox took a blunter approach to the rent-versus-buy conversation.<\/p>\n

\u201cWith all of the online experts saying it\u2019s cheaper to rent, people need to be reminded that renting is 100% interest,\u201d he said. \u201cWhen renting, you will never benefit from principal paydown. In 30 years, a renter will have nothing to sell. In 30 years, a homeowner will own their home outright and can sell it for cash to fund their retirement or pass along to their heirs.\u201d<\/p>\n

For repeat buyers, the conversation looks fundamentally different.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey already \u2018get\u2019 homeownership, so it\u2019s less about selling the dream and more about helping them make smart moves,\u201d said Kennemer. \u201cThey\u2019re thinking about equity, timing and what makes sense for their next stage of life.<\/p>\n

\u201cSo, our role is more about guidance \u2014 helping them look at the bigger picture and make decisions that actually move them forward, not just into another house.\u201d<\/p>\n

In high-cost markets like San Francisco, the path to homeownership often involves multiple steps over many years.<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u201cThe vast majority of first-time home buyers do not have the initial budget to buy their forever home,\u201d Krishnan said. \u201cInstead, they purchase the best home that they can afford at that time. Over the next five or six years, they save more and gain equity. It\u2019s not unusual for Bay Area residents to move up substantially in their careers, and when the stars are properly aligned, the home also appreciates during that time.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey take the equity from their first home, plus their additional savings, and they buy the next home. Sometimes it can take three homes to get to the end of the journey.\u201d<\/p>\n

Preparing for a generational handoff<\/h2>\n

For agents and brokerages, affordability remains the single biggest hurdle, but the nature of that hurdle varies by market.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn our markets we have pretty robust down payment assistance programs available, so down payment isn\u2019t generally a roadblock,\u201d Fox said. \u201cIt\u2019s the monthly payment, which includes insurance and property taxes that makes the biggest impact. In many markets, dramatic increases in property taxes are forcing lower-income buyers, as well as investors, to consider different areas with lower property tax burdens.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn all areas, we\u2019re coaching our clients to consider things that could affect homeowners insurance rates, such as older roofs and past water damage.\u201d<\/p>\n

In San Francisco \u2014 even with intense competition \u2014 brokerages are finding small ways to ease the burden.<\/p>\n

\u201cI know that Compass recently signed a deal with Rocket Mortgage<\/strong> that allows clients working with Compass agents to get 1% off the interest for the first year,\u201d Krishnan said. \u201cThis doesn\u2019t solve the cash issue, but at least it helps a bit with initial affordability.\u201d<\/p>\n

Fox does not expect the low first-time buyer share to persist for years.<\/p>\n

\u201cRising costs forced many buyers to pause their searches, but we\u2019re already seeing many return as they\u2019ve readjusted their finances and living situations,\u201d he said. \u201cInsurance and mortgage rates seem to be normalizing, so many of the wait-and-see-type are also returning. Agents need to focus on their value and their relationships.\u201d<\/p>\n

Vidal agreed that demographics will eventually force a reset.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf first-time buyers were to remain at historic lows for an extended period, it would create continued pressure on prices, sustained demand in the rental market and force brokerages to rethink long-term growth strategies \u2014 but it\u2019s not a permanent state,\u201d he said. \u201cDemographics alone make that clear: millions of homes currently owned by baby boomers will eventually transition, even if some are retained as rentals along the way.\u201d<\/p>\n

Kennemer offered a warning for a scenario in which first-time buyers never recover their market share. <\/p>\n

\u201cFirst-time buyers are what keeps everything moving. Without them, the pipeline gets thinner,\u201d she said. \u201cSo, the industry is going to have to adjust \u2014 whether that\u2019s better financing options, new ways to help people get into homes or just doing a better job of building relationships earlier.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe agents who think long-term and adapt to that are the ones who will stay ahead.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The share of first-time homebuyers has fallen to 21% of all transactions \u2014 the lowest level since the National Association of Realtors (NAR) began tracking the data in 1981. For real estate agents, the shift is not a temporary blip. 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