{"id":63288,"date":"2026-06-18T05:05:35","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T03:05:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/housesmarketplace.trio-tv.com\/3-quick-takes-on-kevin-warshs-first-fed-meeting\/"},"modified":"2026-06-18T05:05:35","modified_gmt":"2026-06-18T03:05:35","slug":"3-quick-takes-on-kevin-warshs-first-fed-meeting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/housesmarketplace.trio-tv.com\/ru\/3-quick-takes-on-kevin-warshs-first-fed-meeting\/","title":{"rendered":"3 quick takes on Kevin Warsh\u2019s first Fed meeting"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Today, Kevin Warsh finished presiding over his first meeting<\/a> \u043a\u0430\u043a \u0424\u0435\u0434\u0435\u0440\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u0440\u0435\u0437\u0435\u0440\u0432<\/a><\/strong> chair, and boy, it was interesting to say the least. Now, keep in mind that I\u2019m the only person on Earth who had #AnyOneButWarsh, so my feelings are well known, but as always, I\u2019m going to call it down the line on what his comments means for the economy. <\/p>\n

For now, I\u2019m going to give you quick three-step takeaway. Tomorrow\u2019s \u0416\u0438\u043b\u044c\u0435\u041f\u0440\u043e\u0432\u043e\u043b\u043e\u043a\u0430<\/strong> \u0415\u0436\u0435\u0434\u043d\u0435\u0432\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u043f\u043e\u0434\u043a\u0430\u0441\u0442<\/a> will dive into today\u2019s topic in more detail and will be just me speaking, as Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler couldn\u2019t join me today to talk about Warsh.<\/p>\n

\u2018Uneven\u2019 policy impacts housing<\/h2>\n

For our audience, \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0432\u043a\u0438 \u043f\u043e \u0438\u043f\u043e\u0442\u0435\u0447\u043d\u044b\u043c \u043a\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0438\u0442\u0430\u043c<\/a> matter.\u00a0 The issue with mortgage rates is that \u0438\u043d\u0444\u043b\u044f\u0446\u0438\u044f<\/a> has taken off stronger than the Fed would like, and then the Iran conflict<\/a> piled on top of that. <\/p>\n

Without the labor data<\/a> getting softer, it\u2019s hard for mortgage rates to go much lower than where we are today. But Warsh did say that monetary policy is \u201cuneven,\u201d meaning that it\u2019s tight for housing but not for other parts of the economy.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s a fair statement to make on his part and something former Chair \u0414\u0436\u0435\u0440\u043e\u043c \u041f\u0430\u0443\u044d\u043b\u043b<\/a> would never say. So, on that point, it\u2019s a positive for the \u0420\u044b\u043d\u043e\u043a \u0436\u0438\u043b\u044c\u044f<\/a> that Warsh is thinking about this. This also means that if the economy softens, lowering rates to boost housing is something the new Fed leader is already considering.<\/p>\n

Rest in peace, forward guidance<\/h2>\n

Another positive thing that I saw today is the end of forward guidance. I wasn\u2019t a fan of the dot plot or the Fed\u2019s projections<\/a>, because they became very sloppy at times in capturing market reactions. So, death to the dot plots \u2014 which basically tells you what Fed members think about future\u00a0federal funds rate policy \u2014 is fine with me.\u00a0 <\/p>\n

With that said, the knock on Warsh<\/a> has always been that he isn\u2019t an economic thinker. Nobody really knows what he believes, except that he\u2019s been bashing the Fed for eight years and now he\u2019s the chairman. <\/p>\n

Once again, #AnyoneButWarsh, so he needs to do a better job of providing guidance for forward-looking market thinkers \u2014 or the markets will do it on their own. If this means he needs to leak stuff out to the Fed, so be it.<\/p>\n

The task force is coming<\/h2>\n

Since we won\u2019t have forward guidance, we will be getting a task force to review everything about the Fed. To me, this means that Warsh really wants to lose the dual mandate; he wants it to only be about price stability, so look for the task force to eventually recommend losing the dual mandate that also includes maximum employment. <\/p>\n

But that move will need congressional approval, and I highly doubt he can muster the political support right now to make it happen. Warsh wants new ways to track labor and inflation data, which is fine. For the task force, a big question remains until we read about its findings.<\/p>\n

\u0417\u0430\u043a\u043b\u044e\u0447\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435<\/h2>\n

I\u2019ll admit my bias against Warsh. And it\u2019s possible that when \u041f\u0440\u0435\u0437\u0438\u0434\u0435\u043d\u0442 \u0422\u0440\u0430\u043c\u043f<\/a> leaves office \u2014 especially if a Democrat returns to the \u0431\u0435\u043b\u044b\u0439 \u0434\u043e\u043c<\/strong> \u2014 we will get Kevin Warsh 1.0 back. <\/p>\n

That said, today\u2019s press event was fine. Warsh can\u2019t be seen as Trump\u2019s boy who does anything to derail dovish policy efforts. The real issue here is that inflation has taken off and the labor market has stabilized. <\/p>\n

The 10-year Treasury yield<\/a> is at 4.50%, and with rate hikes now being priced in, that\u2019s perfectly normal. Can things change six weeks from now when the Fed meets again? Yes, especially with the Iran conflict ending, but we must take it one day at a time.<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Today, Kevin Warsh finished presiding over his first meeting as Federal Reserve chair, and boy, it was interesting to say the least. Now, keep in mind that I\u2019m the only person on Earth who had #AnyOneButWarsh, so my feelings are well known, but as always, I\u2019m going to call it down the line on what […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-63288","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\n3 quick takes on Kevin Warsh\u2019s first Fed meeting - Houses Marketplace<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/housesmarketplace.trio-tv.com\/ru\/3-quick-takes-on-kevin-warshs-first-fed-meeting\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ru_RU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"3 quick takes on Kevin Warsh\u2019s first Fed meeting - Houses Marketplace\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Today, Kevin Warsh finished presiding over his first meeting as Federal Reserve chair, and boy, it was interesting to say the least. 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